November 21, 2024 1:34 pm

A deputy, an insider or Trump? The race for US House Speaker

Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise have become the first two Republicans to join the race to replace Kevin McCarthy, who was voted out as Speaker in an unprecedented move on Tuesday.

Other Republicans are also rumoured to be mounting a bid, and some have even floated Donald Trump as an option.

The Speaker can technically be anyone in the US.

Republicans plan to hold a speaker candidate forum next Tuesday, followed by a possible vote the next day.

Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates who could be next in line.

Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan speaks to a reporter in January 2023
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Once a thorn in his party’s side, Mr Jordan is now one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress.

The firebrand from Ohio, currently serving his ninth term, is chairman of the influential House Judiciary Committee and a key member of the House Oversight Committee.

He has used that perch to lead the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden as well as other aggressive probes of the administration.

But Mr Jordan, 59, was not always inside the inner sanctum in Washington.

The staunch conservative has angered Republicans in the past with his inclination for bomb-throwing rhetoric and divisive tactics.

He was founding chairman in 2015 of the House Freedom Caucus, a disruptive hard-line group one former Republican Speaker labelled “legislative terrorists”.

In the Trump years, however, Mr Jordan gained visibility within the Republican voter base as one of the then-president’s most avid defenders.

He previously ran for Speaker in 2018 and was also nominated earlier this year, but he vigorously defended Mr McCarthy both in January and on Tuesday.

In a letter formally requesting the support of colleagues on Wednesday, Mr Jordan wrote: “We are at a critical crossroad in our nation’s history.”

“We can focus on the changes that improve the country and unite us in offering real solutions. But no matter what we do, we must do it together as a conference.”

His bid has already received the backing of several prominent conservatives, with Matt Gaetz – the rebel who led the coup against Mr McCarthy – writing: “My mentor Jim Jordan would be great!”

But Mr Jordan’s past antics could see him struggle for the support of centrist Republicans.

And if he needs Democratic support, he will likely receive none. The party deplores his pro-Trump and anti-Biden stances, and he has already indicated he is “against” more US aid to Ukraine.

Steve Scalise

Steve Scalise takes questions at a November 2021 news conference
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Mr Scalise, 57, has served as Mr McCarthy’s No. 2 since 2019 and his aspirations for the top job have long been an open secret in Washington.

Representing a suburban Louisiana district in the House since 2008, he is best known for surviving an assassination attempt in June 2017.

He was critically wounded by a bullet to the hip from an anti-Trump extremist who opened fire on Republican lawmakers practising for the annual congressional baseball charity match.

Mr Scalise returned to a standing ovation in Congress after more than three months of rehabilitation. He remains a strong proponent of gun rights.

In August, Mr Scalise said he had been diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a rare but treatable form of blood cancer.

“The task before us is not without its challenges, but I believe in this Conference and our ability to come together and achieve great things,” he said in a letter announcing his bid on Wednesday.

As a member of leadership, Mr Scalise has a more sophisticated political operation than Mr Jordan but faces similar struggles in winning support.

Kevin Hern

Kevin Hern at the US Capitol in May
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Kevin Hern, 61, is not as well-known as Mr Jordan or Mr Scalise but is said to be weighing a run for Speaker.

Mr Hern is a relative newcomer, first elected to the House in 2018 from Oklahoma.

He chairs the Republican Study Committee, a group with significant sway in promoting a conservative law-making agenda.

Born on an Air Force Base in Missouri, Mr Hern is a former aerospace engineer and McDonald’s franchisee, who owned 24 of the fast food chain’s restaurants in Oklahoma, according to his website.

Hard-liners in the House Freedom Caucus have reportedly pushed him to run for a leadership post, but his path to the 218 votes he needs to become Speaker remains unclear.

Donald Trump?

Donald Trump at the 2018 State of the Union
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Holding the Speaker’s gavel instantly makes that person one of the most powerful people in Washington and second in the presidential line of succession.

But the US Constitution says little about who can fill the post, other than that the House “shall chuse [sic] their Speaker”.

Historians and legal experts broadly argue America’s founders likely assumed the person for the job would be drawn from among elected members.

But that hasn’t stopped several other names from coming up in races for Speaker.

In 2015, President Barack Obama joked with an audience that “Kanye [West] is thinking about running for Speaker of the House. It couldn’t get any stranger”.

Mr Trump’s name has come up in this Republican race for Speaker, with the backing of far-right Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and others.

Speaking on Wednesday morning outside the New York court where he is facing a $250m civil fraud trial, the ex-president said “a lot of people” had been calling him about it.

But he appeared to turn down the offer, saying he was focused on winning the presidency next year.

Fantasy booking aside, Mr Trump has too many enemies in the Capitol and almost certainly could not win the votes to become Speaker.

Other potential successors

Patrick McHenry in May
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Following the vote to oust Mr McCarthy on Tuesday, Patrick McHenry was appointed to hold the gavel in the interim.

Mr McHenry, 47, has represented North Carolina in Congress since 2005 and currently chairs the House Financial Services Committee.

The bowtie-wearing lawmaker is a top loyalist to Mr McCarthy and a deal-maker who played a key negotiating role during House Republicans’ debt ceiling showdown with the White House.

Two members of Republican leadership – Tom Emmer and Elise Stefanik – have said they are not running for Speaker.

But as the third and fourth-highest ranking House members in their party, either could emerge as a contender if the contest is prolonged.

However, there is very real discontent among the House Republican conference at present, with many lawmakers demanding reforms.

Florida Congressman Carlos Gimenez has said he and other moderates will not vote for any Speaker who does not commit to a higher threshold for ousting them from power.

Under Mr McCarthy, Mr Gaetz alone was able to challenge and – with Democrats’ help – oust him as Speaker.

“We cannot continue to be governed this way,” Mr Gimenez told CNN on Tuesday.

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